{"id":1783,"date":"2012-11-07T09:04:18","date_gmt":"2012-11-07T13:34:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/?p=1783"},"modified":"2012-11-07T08:09:19","modified_gmt":"2012-11-07T12:39:19","slug":"nate-silver","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/nate-silver\/","title":{"rendered":"Nate Silver y el triunfo de Big Data"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Sin duda el mejor an\u00c3\u00a1lisis de datos de las elecciones norteamericanas de 2012 fue el realizado por Nate Silver. A pesar de ser <a href=\"http:\/\/mashable.com\/2012\/11\/02\/nate-silver-twitter\/\" target=\"_blank\">odiado por los cr\u00c3\u00adticos<\/a>, Silver logr\u00c3\u00b3 una predicci\u00c3\u00b3n del resultado en los 50 estados. Su sitio web, <a href=\"http:\/\/FiveThirtyEight.com\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight.com<\/a> est\u00c3\u00a1 lleno de sobrias pero efectivas visualizaciones que son el resultado mezclar a un estad\u00c3\u00adstico, cierta sensibilidad y el poder de big data.<\/p>\n<p>Compara esta predicci\u00c3\u00b3n con el resultado<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cosentino\/statuses\/266042007758200832\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1784\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/nate-silver\/screen-shot-2012-11-07-at-10-55-29-am\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.55.29-AM.png\" data-orig-size=\"496,371\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Screen Shot 2012-11-07 at 10.55.29 AM\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.55.29-AM-300x224.png\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.55.29-AM.png\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1784\" title=\"Screen Shot 2012-11-07 at 10.55.29 AM\" src=\"http:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.55.29-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"496\" height=\"371\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.55.29-AM.png 496w, https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.55.29-AM-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.55.29-AM-160x120.png 160w, https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.55.29-AM-240x180.png 240w, https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.55.29-AM-358x268.png 358w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 496px) 100vw, 496px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Como mencion\u00c3\u00a9, todo esto se debe a que Silver dispone de una cantidad gigante de encuestas y un m\u00c3\u00a9todo para procesar y convertir esto en predicciones certeras.<\/p>\n<p>Para mi, el gr\u00c3\u00a1fico m\u00c3\u00a1s fascinante de su sitio es el de retorno sobre la inversi\u00c3\u00b3n. B\u00c3\u00a1sicamente se\u00c3\u00b1ala los estados en los que tiene mayor o menor valor convencer a un elector.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1785\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/nate-silver\/screen-shot-2012-11-07-at-10-57-32-am\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.57.32-AM.png\" data-orig-size=\"370,400\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Screen Shot 2012-11-07 at 10.57.32 AM\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.57.32-AM-277x300.png\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.57.32-AM.png\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1785\" title=\"Screen Shot 2012-11-07 at 10.57.32 AM\" src=\"http:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.57.32-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"370\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.57.32-AM.png 370w, https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.57.32-AM-277x300.png 277w, https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.57.32-AM-111x120.png 111w, https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.57.32-AM-166x180.png 166w, https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/Screen-Shot-2012-11-07-at-10.57.32-AM-247x268.png 247w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 370px) 100vw, 370px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>En la introducci\u00c3\u00b3n a su libro, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/product\/159420411X\/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=159420411X&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=panfletonegro\" target=\"_blank\">The Signal and The Noise<\/a>, Silver expone los peligros de que la informaci\u00c3\u00b3n crezca m\u00c3\u00a1s r\u00c3\u00a1pido que nuestra capacidad de entenderla y como usar el t\u00c3\u00a9rmino &#8220;Big Data&#8221; como una panacea para todos los problemas empresariales, normalmente conduce al fracaso (normal -\u00bfhas visto la cara que ponen los gerentes la primera vez que ven una simple p\u00c3\u00a1gina de Google Analyics?). Silver <em>walks the talk<\/em> y expone en <a href=\"http:\/\/FiveThirtyEight.com\" target=\"_blank\">FiveThirtyEight.com<\/a>\u00a0el mejor an\u00c3\u00a1lisis de datos electorales de la historia.<\/p>\n<p>Y para rematar, tuvo raz\u00c3\u00b3n.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 120px; height: 240px;\" src=\"http:\/\/rcm.amazon.com\/e\/cm?lt1=_blank&amp;bc1=000000&amp;IS2=1&amp;bg1=FFFFFF&amp;fc1=000000&amp;lc1=0000FF&amp;t=panfletonegro&amp;o=1&amp;p=8&amp;l=as4&amp;m=amazon&amp;f=ifr&amp;ref=ss_til&amp;asins=159420411X\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"320\" height=\"240\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Si no quieres leer el libro, en Octubre Silver estuvo en The Daily Show dando una entrevista divertida y fascinante.<\/p>\n<div style=\"background-color: #000000; width: 520px;\">\n<div style=\"padding: 4px;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/media.mtvnservices.com\/embed\/mgid:cms:video:thedailyshow.com:420293\" frameborder=\"0\" width=\"512\" height=\"288\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left; background-color: #ffffff; padding: 4px; margin-top: 4px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.thedailyshow.com\/watch\/wed-october-17-2012\/exclusive---nate-silver-extended-interview-pt--1\">The Daily Show with Jon Stewart<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\nGet More: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thedailyshow.com\/full-episodes\/\">Daily Show Full Episodes<\/a>,<a href=\"http:\/\/www.indecisionforever.com\/\">Political Humor &amp; Satire Blog<\/a>,<a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/thedailyshow\">The Daily Show on Facebook<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sin duda el mejor an\u00c3\u00a1lisis de datos de las elecciones norteamericanas de 2012 fue el realizado por Nate Silver. A pesar de ser odiado por los cr\u00c3\u00adticos, Silver logr\u00c3\u00b3 una predicci\u00c3\u00b3n del resultado en los 50 estados. Su sitio web, FiveThirtyEight.com est\u00c3\u00a1 lleno de sobrias pero efectivas visualizaciones que son el resultado mezclar a un&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/nate-silver\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Nate Silver y el triunfo de Big Data<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[153,152],"tags":[167,166],"class_list":["post-1783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-controldeproyectos","category-ventas","tag-big-data","tag-visualizacion","entry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1tlzy-sL","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1632,"url":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/como-hacer-esqueleto-de-una-aplicacion-una-pagina-web\/","url_meta":{"origin":1783,"position":0},"title":"C\u00c3\u00b3mo hacer un esqueleto de una aplicaci\u00c3\u00b3n o una p\u00c3\u00a1gina web","author":"Daniel Pradilla","date":"18\/04\/2011","format":false,"excerpt":"El cliente te pide un nuevo dise\u00c3\u00b1o. Discuten lo que debe incluir el nuevo dise\u00c3\u00b1o. En el mejor de los casos, haces un documento de especificaciones que nadie lee. Haces tu mejor trabajo. El cliente sugiere \"peque\u00c3\u00b1os cambios\". Ambos se dan cuenta de que faltan contenidos y piezas claves en\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Control de Proyectos&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Control de Proyectos","link":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/category\/controldeproyectos\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/Screen-shot-2011-04-18-at-11.48.38-AM-300x246.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1827,"url":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/presencia-online\/","url_meta":{"origin":1783,"position":1},"title":"Como mejorar tu presencia en l\u00c3\u00adnea","author":"Daniel Pradilla","date":"14\/01\/2013","format":false,"excerpt":"En estos d\u00c3\u00adas, mi primo me escribi\u00c3\u00b3 con algunas preguntas sobre su presencia en l\u00c3\u00adnea. \u00c3\u2030l est\u00c3\u00a1 claro que tener y actualizar un curr\u00c3\u00adculum es cosa del pasado\u00a0y lo crucial es mejorar tu presencia web. Mi respuesta consisti\u00c3\u00b3 en dos partes, una relacionada con LinkedIn y otra con su blog\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Redes Sociales&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Redes Sociales","link":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/category\/redessociales\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/NA009016.jpeg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/NA009016.jpeg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/NA009016.jpeg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1822,"url":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/dibujando-el-mundo-a-mano\/","url_meta":{"origin":1783,"position":2},"title":"Dibujando el mundo a mano","author":"Daniel Pradilla","date":"07\/01\/2013","format":false,"excerpt":"En el Gletschergarten de Lucerna, entre antiguos mapas, maquetas y relieves de los Alpes suizos, encontramos una exposici\u00c3\u00b3n de Ueli L\u00c3\u00a4uppi, un cart\u00c3\u00b3grafo local que se ha dedicado a dibujar y colorear mapas a mano, usando una proyecci\u00c3\u00b3n particular que destaca una meticulosa representaci\u00c3\u00b3n de las monta\u00c3\u00b1as. No contento con\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Control de Proyectos&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Control de Proyectos","link":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/category\/controldeproyectos\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/pluviosidad.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/pluviosidad.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/pluviosidad.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2074,"url":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/nate-silver-and-the-age-of-data-journalism\/","url_meta":{"origin":1783,"position":3},"title":"Nate Silver And The Age of Data Journalism","author":"Daniel Pradilla","date":"24\/03\/2014","format":false,"excerpt":"A few days ago, the new version of Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight went live, backed by ESPN. According to Silver's observations, explained in his site's manifesto, the market is ripe for a data-oriented journalism. I totally agree. A day doesn't go by in which I hear or read an argument that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Lifestyle&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Lifestyle","link":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/category\/lifestyle\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"538_intro4","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/538_intro4.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/538_intro4.png?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/538_intro4.png?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1707,"url":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/como-hacer-una-presentacion-efectiva-iii-los-finales\/","url_meta":{"origin":1783,"position":4},"title":"C\u00c3\u00b3mo hacer una presentaci\u00c3\u00b3n efectiva, III &#8211; Los finales","author":"Daniel Pradilla","date":"01\/01\/2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Ya dominaste el arte de transformar tu mensaje en una historia. Inclusive lograste crear una versi\u00c3\u00b3n de 15 segundos de tu idea. Pero cuando terminas tu discurso, la gente no se entera de que has terminado. No hay aplausos. Quiz\u00c3\u00a1s tengas un problema para terminar. La mayor\u00c3\u00ada de nosotros somos\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Ventas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Ventas","link":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/category\/ventas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/finishing.jpeg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/finishing.jpeg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/finishing.jpeg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1598,"url":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/como-adquirir-la-disciplina-para-trabajar-remotamente\/","url_meta":{"origin":1783,"position":5},"title":"C\u00c3\u00b3mo adquirir la disciplina para trabajar remotamente","author":"Daniel Pradilla","date":"08\/02\/2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Este art\u00c3\u00adculo pertenece a la serie de virtualizaci\u00c3\u00b3n, teletrabajo e independencia geogr\u00c3\u00a1fica. El aspecto m\u00c3\u00a1s obvio y fundamental del teletrabajo es el acto de desarrollar una actividad productiva con otras personas, en un ambiente que no asociamos con el trabajo. Si eres freelancer o aut\u00c3\u00b3nomo, de pronto ya est\u00c3\u00a1s acostumbrado\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Estilo de vida&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Estilo de vida","link":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/category\/estilo-de-vida\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.afinidades.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/6a0120a85dcdae970b0120a86d9289970b-pi.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1783","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1783"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1783\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.danielpradilla.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}